Prospects bleak for South Africa's manufacturing sector

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From Mthulisi Sibanda in Johannesburg


Johannesburg – The outlook of South Africa’s manufacturing
production is subdued owing to the risk of load shedding, uncertain
global growth, flat commodity prices and constrained domestic consumer
demand.

The latest data from Statistics South Africa indicates that annual
output came out worse than markets expected in September.

Factory output contracted by 2,4 percent year-on-year (y-o-y) in
September after shrinking by 1,8 percent in the previous month.

On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, production shrank
severely to 2,4 percent from growth of 1,9 percent.

The main drag came from the basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metals,
machinery, petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastic products.

There was also a drop in the motor vehicles, parts and accessories as
well as other transport equipment categories.

Nedbank’s Economic unit noted that furthermore, the Absa/ Bureau for
Economic Research (BER) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remained below
the 50- point level for the third consecutive month in October,
suggesting poor manufacturing activity for the coming months.

“Anticipated growth for the year is still weak as the local and global
economic environment remains subdued,” Nedbank stated.

  “The risk of load-shedding and weak labour market also signal minimal
recovery for the sector in the short- to medium-term,” the bank’s
economic unit added.

The company noted global PMIs released last week continued to reflect
lacklustre manufacturing conditions across all the major industrialised
and developing countries, painting a bleak picture for global prospects.

Mpho Tsebe, economist at Rand Merchant Bank (RMB), said the declining
manufacturing output also added the precarious growth outlook for the
South African economy.

Tsebe said the manufacturing data indicated that the sector would
subtract 0,5 percentage points from the third quarter (3Q) 2019 gross
domestic product (GDP) after adding 0,3 percentage points to growth in
2Q 19.

This indicates that 3Q 19 GDP growth will slow from the 3.1 percent
quarter-on-quarter recorded in 2Q 19.

Absa economists described the September manufacturing output data as
“quite disappointing.”

The financial house, however, stated that positively, the Absa
manufacturing PMI had improved slightly in October to 48,1 from 45,1 in
September.

“This perhaps suggests some bottoming out,” Absa stated.

Manufacturing is South Africa’s fourth-largest industry.

It contributes 15 percent to GDP and accounts for more than 13 percent
of jobs.

The food and beverages division is the most important player in the
industry, contributing 25 percent to total manufacturing activity.

- CAJ News

 

 

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