President Zuma under pressure to show where his heart lies



Windhoek - South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma will have to prove his leftist political credentials by adopting more radical economic policies and mollify citizens’ mounting discontent to ensure his political survival at the forthcoming 53rd ANC party conference in Mangaung in December.

Serving his third year as ANC and South Africa’s President since toppling Thabo Mbeki in a palace coup in September 2008, he is now facing a veritable survival battle.

President Zuma says he endures “sleepless nights” over a wave of anger and frustration due to government’s abject failure to deliver on grandiose promises of job creation, poverty eradication and plugging the yawning chasm in wealth ownership.

ANC members were this past week locked in a four-day policy planning conference, whose outcome was expected to largely signal a radical shift in South Africa’s approach to tackling societal and economic inequalities.

South Africa is often rated the world’s most unequal society with the gap between rich and poor inexorably widening nearly two decades after the fall of apartheid.

The outcomes of the policy conference, analysts say, will be a temperature gauge on whether or not the ANC wants to give President Zuma another term in office. The Zuma-led government has adopted largely business-friendly policies at a time when analysts say that countrywide calls for nationalisation of mines indicate “growing radicalism”, which is also a “reflection of widespread dissatisfaction with the level of progress made during Zuma’s first term”. President Zuma said at the start of the policy conference that South Africa should prepare for a “radical shift to deal with challenges”, blaming the ANC’s failures on the compromises the party made when it struck a political deal with the apartheid government and international mining capital for universal suffrage in 1994.

“For example, we had to be cautious about restructuring the economy, in order to maintain economic stability and confidence at the time.

“Thus, the economic power relations of the apartheid era have in the main remained intact. The ownership of the economy is still primarily in the hands of white males as it has always been,” President Zuma said.

In South Africa, 29 percent of blacks are unemployed compared to only 5.9 percent of whites. Estimates also say that white people have an average income which is nearly seven times that of blacks.

South Africa is the SADC region’s economic powerhouse but this wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few.

Eighteen years after independence, half of South Africa’s population wallows in grinding poverty while unemployment hovers around 26 percent.

Nearly 49 percent of South Africa’s youths are roaming the streets in search of employment.

President Zuma’s government faces mounting criticism of ineffective leadership in tackling a poor education system, chronic unemployment and the widespread poverty.

His critics have also seized on Tshwane’s foreign policy inadequacies as they mount a campaign for the ANC to deny him a second term at the December 2012 Mangaung conference.

Analysts concur that South Africa’s economy is predominantly white-dominated, but they doubt President Zuma’s sincerity to immediately addressing this as the battle for political survival increasingly takes centre stage.

“My initial impression is that President Zuma’s opening speech was primarily politically-designed to win a second term-and mollify critics on the left-and the poor.

“It’s also convenient to still blame apartheid for the government’s failings-although that position is getting a little dated now,” Pat Thacker, the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Africa analyst said.

Analysts at advisory firm, africapractice believe that President Zuma is “vulnerable and a leadership challenge at Mangaung is likely”; a development which he can deftly deal with by displaying his leftist credentials. The other option, it seems, is a political death.

“Given that Zuma campaigned for the Presidency on a pro-poor platform, his ascension to the leadership of the ANC was expected to signal a break from market oriented policy-making decisions towards a more left-leaning policy programme.

“Three years on from his election he needs to demonstrate progress,” africapractice said.

The analysts also said that President Zuma’s “second transition” document, which media reports on June 26 said was being rejected by party delegates, is not enough to pacify the ANC’s leftist elements.

President Zuma’s second transition centres on promoting a South Africa with a mixed economy, and creating a labour intensive economy to deal with unemployment.

“This may not go far enough for the leftist elements of the ANC for whom Zuma’s tendency to default to centrist policy-making has proven to be a major disappointment,” africapractice analysts said.

 Critics have said that the document seeks to depart from the ANC’s Freedom Charter - whose ideals have not yet been met – as well as the party’s Polokwane resolutions that ushered in President Zuma’s reign and marked Former President Mbeki’s demise.

“To wake up in the morning and announce you are now in a second transition, like you are announcing the second birthday of a child, is politically incorrect and lacks ideological clarity,” expelled ANC Youth League President Julius Malema told South African media.

Analysts say that Zuma will have to transform his radicalism into practice to outflank rivals and win the battle for the heart and soul of the ANC.

“He may be forced to give early concessions to the left if he wants to retain COSATU support come Manguang.

“Although in a better position than Mbeki in 2007, Zuma is vulnerable. The left doubts his commitment to the promises made at Polokwane, while for the centrist and business factions he remains too unpredictable,” africapractice analysts said.

“Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe is ready and waiting in the wings and we understand that his supporters have been busy preparing for a leadership challenge,” the analysts added.